A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
