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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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